Raffles Square
Research

Research

Our written work on global markets. Each note sets out what we observed, what we think it means, and how it bears on the way portfolios are positioned.

Notes are published to this page and circulated to clients by email. Write to us to be added to the distribution list.

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Market Notes

Monthly reviews of what moved, and why it mattered.

Utkarsh Anil Baviskar·8th September 2026·Global Markets·26 min read

Everything Except the Promise — August 2026 in Global Markets

Software had its best August since 1990. Semiconductors lost $1.1 trillion in a fortnight. Utilities fell 4.8% in the middle of the largest electricity demand boom in seventy years. Gold rose 10.5%, and the 30-year Treasury yield hit a nineteen-year high. This note argues they share a common driver: August was a month in which the price of long-dated money rose, and assets were re-ranked by how much of it they need. A split within the utilities sector offers some of the clearest evidence.

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Raffles Square August 2026 Market Notes cover
Utkarsh Baviskar·5th August 2026·Global Markets·16 min read

The Quiet Month That Wasn’t — July 2026 in Global Markets

The S&P 500 finished July down 0.2%. On that number alone, nothing happened. Underneath it, the most crowded trade on earth was liquidated at four times leverage, Seoul hit circuit breakers on consecutive days for the first time in its history, and the US Treasury bought yen for the first time since 1998. This note separates the three things that actually occurred — a positioning unwind, a valuation debate about AI infrastructure, and a credit migration — and sets out what each means for how we are positioned.

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Raffles Square July 2026 Market Notes cover

Notes are added here as they are published. Earlier commentary is available to clients on request.

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